A BRIEF HISTORY OF DOOM TWO HUNDRED YEARS OF FINANCIAL CRISES
Book ID/图书代码： 13567919C00002
English Summary/英文概要： Financial crises happen time and again in post-industrial economies—and they are extraordinarily damaging. Building on insights gleaned from many years of work in the banking industry and drawing on a vast trove of data, Richard Vague argues that such crises follow a pattern that makes them both predictable and avoidable.
A Brief History of Doom examines a series of major crises over the past 200 years in the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France, Japan, and China—including the Great Depression and the economic meltdown of 2008. Vague demonstrates that the over-accumulation of private debt does a better job than any other variable of explaining and predicting financial crises. In a series of clear and gripping chapters, he shows that in each case the rapid growth of loans produced widespread overcapacity, which then led to the spread of bad loans and bank failures. This cycle, according to Vague, is the essence of financial crises and the script they invariably follow.
The story of financial crisis is fundamentally the story of private debt and runaway lending. Convinced that we have it within our power to break the cycle, Vague provides the tools to enable politicians, bankers, and private citizens to recognize and respond to the danger signs before it begins again.
Chinese Summary/中文概要： 金融危機在後工業經濟中一次又一次地發生──且極具毀滅性。本書作者Richard Vague以其多年的金融從業經驗以及大數據的研究，分析出其實所有的危機都有跡可循，而其模式不但可預測且可避免。本書檢驗了近代兩百年來一系列主要的金融危機，範圍橫跨美國、英國、德國、法國、日本、中國，從經濟大蕭條到2008年的金融海嘯，並提出一個精闢的論證──在所有因素當中，「私人債務」(private debt)所扮演的角色遠比其他針對金融危機的各項解釋和預測指標還更加重要。
本書論述清晰且情節如小說般扣人心弦，作者為我們展示了不論在哪一個案子當中，急遽增長的貸款都會導致普遍的產能過剩，並進而導致大肆蔓延的呆帳和銀行倒閉。這種惡性循環正是金融危機的本質，也是所有金融危機不約而同的腳本。
金融危機的故事基本上就是私人債務和失控貸款的故事。而Vague深信我們有能力打破這一循環，並為我們提供了一些工具，來促使執政者、銀行家和公民都能夠在一切還來得及的時候識別出危險的信號，並能夠在金融危機再次上演之前予以回應。
(Zoe)
Awards/获奖情况：「債務暴增是現代經濟的致命弱點，沒有人比Richard Vague更了解這一點，他以身為一位前銀行家的身分，為我們揭露了放貸人和借貸者的愚蠢行為，如何助長了信貸繁榮(credit booms)，從而導致毀滅性的金融危機。在這本他對200年金融史的全面描述中，Vague以他對銀行業的深入了解，分析私人債務的繁榮如何促使經濟和社會面臨巨大風險。對於任何想預見下一次金融危機的人來說，本書是必讀之作。」──Moritz Schularick，德國波昂大學經濟學教授
「Richard Vague揭示了一個非常重要的見解，即歷史上的金融危機皆源於私人企業的泡沫化，而這對於想阻止泡沫化產生的政府系統而言是一個艱鉅的挑戰。要防止長期的經濟衰退本來就需要巨大的努力，而公部門的失能更會帶來毀滅性的後果，不僅對於財政部門的專家或治理的聲譽是如此，對於政府的其他每一個部門也都是如此。在金融海嘯之後，左翼或右翼的施政無能仍是導致政黨輪替的主要原因，Richard Vague疾呼我們必須正視這些代價。」──Robert Johnson，新經濟思維研究所（Institute for New Economic Thinking）所長
「正當美國監管機構和貸方顯露出已經遺忘2008年金融海嘯的教訓時，Richard Vague針對私人債務的危險提出了及時的論述。本書深入淺出，對於任何想要了解過去金融危機－並預測未來的災難－的人來說，這是必讀之作。」──Rich Miller，美國權威經濟媒體《彭博新聞社》（Bloomberg News）
「債務始終是下次金融危機的最大指標，然而，儘管大多數人都會關注政府債務，但私人債務卻遭到忽視，被認為不是一個風險因素。Richard Vague糾正了這個看法 - 鑑於企業債務現在處於歷史新高 - 現在閱讀他的書正是時候。」──Rana Foroohar，當代最重要的經濟評論家之一，《金融時報》專欄作家及CNN全球經濟分析師，《時代》雜誌商業專欄作家、CNN全球經濟分析家。
"Debt booms are the Achilles heel of modern economies, and nobody understands this better than Richard Vague. It takes a former banker to expose the folly of lenders in fueling credit booms that lead to devastating financial crises. In his sweeping account of 200 years of financial history, Vague builds on his intimate understanding of banking to explain how private debt booms put economic and social prosperity at risk. This is a must read for anyone who wants to see the next crisis coming."—Moritz Schularick, University of Bonn
"Richard Vague unmasks a very important insight that financial crises throughout history have originated in bubble formation in the private sector. This diagnosis presents a huge challenge to the political system regarding how to implement the preventative medicine to impede bubbles. The stakes are high for preventing prolonged economic downturns, and the impotence of the public sector is devastating to the reputation of experts and governance, not only in the financial sector but across every division of government. The demoralization on both the left and right after the Great Financial Crisis remains a major contributor to the politics of today. Vague challenges us to face up to these costs."—Robert Johnson, Institute for New Economic Thinking
"Just when U.S. regulators and lenders are showing signs of forgetting the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis, Richard Vague comes out with this timely treatise on the dangers of excessive private debt. Deeply researched yet easily understandable, it’s must-reading for anyone who wants to understand the financial crises of the past— and anticipate the catastrophes of the future."—Rich Miller, Bloomberg News
About the Author/作者介绍： Richard Vague目前是Gabriel Investments的管理合夥人之一，也是非盈利慈善組織總督伍茲基金會（The Governor’s Woods Foundation）的主席。他他著有《下一次經濟浩劫：為什麼會來，以及我們該如何避免它》（The Next Economic Disaster: Why It’s Coming and How to Avoid It），這本書採用了預測和預防金融危機的新方法。此前，他是Energy Plus的聯合創始人、董事長兼CEO，Energy Plus是一家在美國各州經營的電力和天然氣供應公司，於2011年被出售給NRG Energy .Vague，他還是兩家信用卡公司的聯合創始人兼CEO──First USA，該公司後來成長為該行業最大的Visa發行商並於1997年被出售給Bank One；以及Juniper Financial，該公司為過去十年中增長最快的信用卡發行商，並於2004年被出售給英國第二大的銀行Barclays PLC。
Philanthropist and former banker Richard Vague is a managing partner of Gabriel Investments, Chairman of The Governor’s Woods Foundation, and author of The Next Economic Disaster: Why It’s Coming and How to Avoid It, also available from the University of Pennsylvania Press.
Format:HARDCOVER
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