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页数:288
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上传日期:2020-2-13 0:00:00

SEEING INTO THE FUTURE: A SHORT HISTORY OF PREDICTION

Book ID/图书代码: 14932920C00002

English Summary/英文概要: The ability to predict the future is essential to modern life. Planning for population growth or changes in weather patterns or forecasting demand for products and managing inventories would be impossible without it. But how have people through the ages gone about making predictions? What were their underlying assumptions, and what methods did they use? Have increased computer power and the newest algorithms improved our success in anticipating the future, or are we still only as good (or as bad) as our ancestors bent over their auguries? From the ancients watching the flight of birds to the murky activities of Google and Facebook today, Seeing into the Future provides vital insight into the past, present, and—of course—future of prediction.

Chinese Summary/中文概要: 從古至今,人類從未停止去預測未來、想像未來,人類去預測未來的這項行為,打從人類出現以來就沒有停過,如果人類沒有這麼做,那麼就不會有任何創新發生,也不會有目標被設定,甚至人類也無法避免危險並做出防範。因此,「預測」對於人類至關重要,而且可預測的是,未來的人們也將繼續這麼做!

本書作者是大名鼎鼎的Yuval Noah Harari的老師,Yuval Noah Harari寫了暢銷書《人類三部曲:人類大歷史、人類大命運、21世紀的21堂課》,而作者寫這本書的緣起,就在於《人類三部曲》的第二本《人類大命運:從智人到神人》。「究竟從古至今的人們是如何去預測未來的?」當作者去探究這個問題時,他深深為其著迷,他想知道,像是他的學生、史蒂芬霍金、H·G·威爾斯(他寫了外星人入侵地球的《世界大戰》),甚至是神祕的猶太預言家諾斯德拉達姆斯(他從五百年前就預言了911事件、全球暖化的發生),這些人到底是怎麼做的?

而探究這個問題的前世今生,就跟探究人類的未來一樣有趣!透過這本書,你會發現,人們預測未來的方式不僅跟文化密切相關,也跟人類的文明發展密不可分。本書從一個截然不同的眼光和角度看歷史,帶領讀者發現,「未來學」並非是現代獨有的發明。 (Zoe)

Awards/获奖情况:‘Martin van Creveld’s Seeing into the Future is a widely informed and deeply thoughtful examination of a critical area of human concern. Anyone seeking insight into the futurology and forecasting, with its manifold involvements in religion, sociology, science, and practical affairs will profit from this instructive and insightful work.’ – Dr Nicholas Rescher, Distinguished Professor of Philosophy, University of Pittsburgh

About the Author/作者介绍: 馬丁·範·克里維爾德(Martin van Creveld)是耶路撒冷希伯來大學的名譽教授,也是世界上最著名的軍事歷史和戰略專家之一。他是二十多本書的作者,涉及這些主題的所有方面,已被翻譯成二十多種語言,包括:中文、法文、德文、希臘文、義大利文、日文、韓文、波蘭文、葡萄牙文、俄文、塞爾維亞語和西班牙文。克雷維爾德教授曾為各個國家的國防機構提供諮詢,並在許多軍事和民間高等教育機構中任教或演講。他還撰寫了數百篇文章,並受邀為世界各地的報紙媒體、電視和廣播節目提供專業意見。他的著作包括《戰爭遊戲:從羅馬角鬥士到網路戰》、《特權化的性》等等。

Martin van Creveld is professor emeritus at the Hebrew University, Jerusalem, and the author of many books including Wargames: From Gladiators to Gigabytes and The Privileged Sex.

Format:HARDCOVER

Rights Status/版权销售情况:Simplified Chinese/简体中文:AVAILABLE(到期可授)

Complex/Traditional Chinese/繁体中文:AVAILABLE(到期可授)

Sales in other countries/其他国家销售情况:Russian

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