REAL TIME STRATEGY: WHEN STRATEGIC FORESIGHT MEETS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Book ID/图书代码： 04331420C00023

English Summary/英文概要： In today’s world, decision makers struggle to make good long-term decisions. There is simply too much volatility, too much complexity, too much fake news, and too little time to make sense of all the information that is at our fingertips. We are drowning in data, surrounded by uncertainty and thus live in a world that lacks clarity.

Moving away from the static thinking of many strategists, this book updates and upholds the importance of scenario design and thinking in the face of uncertainty. The authors investigate the journey of the art and science of scenario thinking, from its beginnings in the military to becoming a part of the mainstream strategy toolkit in the business world.

Chinese Summary/中文概要： 「我們總是高估了未來兩年會有的變化，但卻低估了未來十年會有的變化。 不要麻痺自己而無所作為。」 ──比爾·蓋茲

問題不是我們想不想買有收錄特典的DVD，問題是我們到底會不會買DVD。 現在，Netflix已經用線上串流回答得很清楚了。 它改變了整個影視產業的輪廓並且還為整個串流影音業的競爭者們鋪平了道路。

問對問題對決策至關重要，但在太多訊息和變化太快的現代，決策要面臨的複雜性往往是難以想像的。針對這點，本書提出「情境式思考」（scenario thinking）作為解方，這種思考策略不論是對於個人要找工作，還是公司高層要做重要決策，都一樣有效。這種策略擺脫了許多戰略家的靜態思維，另闢蹊徑地直接面對不確定性。本書作者以歷史和當代重要商業決策案例深入分析為什麼這種思考方式會有效，以及這種策略如何演進，從一開始用於軍事決策，到如今開始成為商業世界主流的戰略工具之一，帶我們一窺「情境式思考」的藝術和科學，並以實際案例分析如何運用和這種方法的利與弊。

本書探討的主題包括：
人類的直覺
分析與反思過程
混合決策平台
社群媒體的感知
人工智能

本書結合了傳統的情境式思考、與大數據和人工智能的分析能力，為我們呈現了一種開創未來的決策方式－－這種策略使決策者能夠制定動態的策略、監控其有效性，並能更快的做出反應。 (Zoe)

Awards/获奖情况：’Real Time Strategy illustratesthe future of strategic decision-making - the integration human creativityexpertise and gut feeling with the raw analytical power of AI tools. This book is practical,novel and thought provoking. It provides a soundbasis for strategists andbusinessexecutives onthe state-of-the-art in scenario planning. It shows how strategicthinking combines effortlessly with the latest developmentsin Natural Language Processing and cognitive science. And, it draws a differentiatedpictureon both the pitfalls as well as the opportunities of AI-enhanceddecision-making.’ Nicolai Andersen, Chief Innovation Officer, Deloitte EMEA

’Tired of the hype around AI but wondering how it and Big Data can help you make more robust long-range decisions for your organization amidst steadily increasing uncertainty, volatility and ambiguity? Then this book is for you. Schühly, Becker and Klein are seasoned advisers and practitioners at the cutting edge of strategy and scenario craft. They are now literally taking the art and science of foresight itself into the future by explaining how the human strategist’s creativity and judgment can be augmented and improved through intelligent data-driven pattern recognition and insights.’ Olaf J. Groth, PH.D.,CEO of Cambrian Designs Inc., Professional Faculty at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business Professor of Practice at Hult International Business School, and Co-Author of Solomon’s Code: Humanity in a World of Thinking Machines.

’Our world is trapped in short-term thinking because the challenges we face are ever more complex. This book shows how to break that vicious circle by joining human intuition with Artificial Intelligence in scenario planning to form a long-term strategic perspective. Real Time Strategy is a must-read for corporate and public decision makers.’ Helmut Haussmann, Former Minister of Economics of the Federal Republic of Germany

About the Author/作者介绍： Andreas Schühly是一位戰略顧問，他為國際企業制定展望未來的策略。他的研究主題包括情境式分析的實踐和策略管理的文化敏感性。

Frank Becker是一位策略家及複雜性科學家。他領導著一個主要的人工智能平台的創新工作，在該平台上，他將深厚的技術專長與戰略家解決問題的思維方式結合在一起。

Florian Klein是公司策略師和一位未來學思想家。他創立了遠景研究中心(Center for the Long View)，並與全球公司和政府的高層決策者合作，在充滿不確定性的今日制定有效的策略。

Andreas Schühly is a strategy consultant, supporting corporations across the globe in developing future-proof strategies. In addition to applying scenarios in practice, he analyzes the cultural sensitivity of strategic management as part of his academic research.

Format:HARDCOVER

Rights Status/版权销售情况：Simplified Chinese/简体中文：SOLD

Complex/Traditional Chinese/繁体中文：AVAILABLE

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