APOLLO’S ARROW: THE SCIENCE OF PREDICTION AND THE FUTURE OF EVERYTHING

Book ID/图书代码： 06002006B08714

English Summary/英文概要： For centuries, scientists and charlatans have claimed to know what’s happening tomorrow before tomorrow comes. But how well can we really predict the future? Can past events—Hurricane Katrina, bull markets, the SARS outbreak—help us understand what will happen next? Will scientists ever be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic or economic crash to thunder through our lives? In Apollo’s Arrow, Canadian scientist David Orrell looks back at past prognosticators, from the time of the Oracle at Delphi to the rise of astrology to the advent of the nightly news, showing us how scientists (and some charlatans) predicted the future. He asks how today’s scientists can claim to anticipate future weather events when even three-day forecasts prove a serious challenge. Can we predict epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives?

Chinese Summary/中文概要： 幾個世紀以來，科學家和騙子們都聲稱能夠預知明天的事情。但是我們究竟能夠多大程度上預知未來呢？過去發生的事情，比如卡特裏娜颱風、牛市、SARS的爆發，能否幫助我們預知未來？科學家們是否會有能力預知未來？或者我們將受大自然的支配，等待另一場風暴、疾病或者經濟危機的爆發？
在這本書裏，加拿大科學家大衛斯·奧銳爾回顧了過去的預言家，從特爾斐的傳神諭者，到占星術的興起，到夜間新聞的出現，告訴我們科學家們和一些騙子是如何預測未來的。他提出質疑，當下預測三天的天氣預報尚且是一個很大的挑戰，那麼今天的科學家們為什麼宣稱能夠預測未來的天氣狀況呢？我們能夠預測流行性疾病嗎？我們能夠預測未來的經濟走向嗎？或者我們只能等到明天到來之後才能夠知道明天的事情。(TT)

Awards/获奖情况：

About the Author/作者介绍： David Orrell, Ph.D., received his doctorate in mathematics from the University of Oxford. His work in the prediction of complex systems has been featured in New Scientist and the Financial Times, and on BBC Radio, ABC Radio (Australia) and NPR. His theory that errors in weather forecasts are due not to chaos (the “butterfly effect”) but to model error stirred up a storm of debate in meteorological circles. He now conducts research in the area of systems biology. He lives in Vancouver, British Columbia.
大衛斯·奧銳爾博士在牛津大學獲得數學博士學位。他在複雜系統的預測方面的工作受到了《新科學》、《金融時報》和BBC廣播電臺、ABC電臺 NPR電臺的關注。他的理論是天氣預報產生的錯誤不是由混亂造成的，而是由模型錯誤造成的。他的理論引發了氣象圈人士的爭論風暴。他住在溫哥華。

Format:TRADE PAPERBACK

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