PREDICTING THE UNTHINKABLE, ANTICIPATING THE IMPOSSIBLE: FROM THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL TO AMERICA IN THE NEW CENTURY

Book ID/图书代码： 13149010B37721

English Summary/英文概要： In the 1980s, most Americans scoffed at the idea that the Communist empire could collapse—but Georgie Anne Geyer was already outlining that probability. In the 1990s, the world was stunned by wars that raged across post- Yugoslavia and their viciousness—but Geyer on a trip to Belgrade in 1989, interviewed top officials and anticipated the conflicts. When 9/11 occurred, she used common sense and said, “This was inevitable—the terrorists had already attacked the World Trade Center in 1993 and criminals always return to the scene of the crime.”

Geyer argues that while the United States was being praised everywhere during this era of “indispensable power” as the “greatest power the world has known,” it actually had started on the road to decline. It had won the Cold War, but had immediately embarked upon more Vietnam-like small wars of tremendous cost in Iraq and Afghanistan. Across the board, it was no longer paying its way, while its domestic culture was being vulgarized at every turn.

This book explains how, when, and where these declines happened. Geyer studies the history of nations and of peoples, observes human nature, particularly as influenced by religion and ideology; and is a close analyst of the acts of men and women when they perceive they have been humiliated by others or by history. She warns Americans and journalists that we must anticipate the changes in the world before they are upon us and that we must employ predictions to strengthen our nation and its principles.

Chinese Summary/中文概要： 是歷史的進程改變了我們，還是我們改變了歷史的進程

在八十年代，大多數美國人嘲笑共產主義陣營會崩塌的這一觀點—— 但Georgie Anne Geyer（喬治•安妮•赫耶爾）已經概括了這一可能性。九十年代，整個世界對肆虐於前南斯拉夫境内殘酷的內戰和惡行而感到震驚 ——但赫耶爾在 1989 年，前往貝爾格勒採訪高層官員就預測到了衝突發生的可能性。當9/11 發生時，她運用常識說道，“這是不可避免的 — — 恐怖分子已于 1993 年襲擊過世界貿易中心，如今只是惡徒返回到犯罪現場而已。”
赫耶爾認為，雖然美國被世界各地譽為是這一時期“不可或缺的力量”因為這一“世人所認知的最強大力量，”實際上已開始一路下滑。雖然已經贏得了冷戰，但立即著手處理更多的像南亞小國越南那樣的小型戰爭，以及在伊拉克和阿富汗戰爭的造成了巨大成本耗費。縱觀全域，原有的國際處理方式不再行之有效，雖然本國文化每次都被平民化。
這部書解釋了如何，何時，和何地這些傾覆下滑會發生。赫耶爾研究國家民族歷史，觀察人類的本性，特別是受到宗教和意識形態的影響下的人性；當他們意識到自己一直蒙受他人或是歷史的羞辱時，她就是一位關於人類行為親密的分析師。她警示美國人和記者們，我們必須在世界發生變化，即對我們產生影響前預測到它，我們必須運用我們的預測能力（預警系統）來強化我們的國家民族和國際規則。(Sandy)

Awards/获奖情况：“(She is) one of the giants…an award-winning correspondent, columnist, and author for half a century...Her columns have been appearing twice weekly in more than 120 newspapers here and abroad. From a beginning in Latin America, Gee Gee has reported from all parts of the globe, interviewed many world leaders and made frequent television appearances….Few have turned in so much excellent correspondence for so many years.”---James F. Hoge, Jr., is Chairman of Human Rights Watch, past chairman of the International Center for Journalists, and Editor Emeritus of Foreign Affairs
“（她是）一個了不起的人…… 一位獲獎記者，專欄作家，和有著半個世紀從業經驗的作家…… 她所撰寫的專欄每週兩次一直刊登在，超過120份的海外和本地報紙上。從拉丁美洲開始，赫耶就已經開始報導世界各地的新聞，採訪了許多世界領導人，經常在電視上嶄露頭角……很少有這麼優秀的通訊記者能保有這樣多年的業績。”—James F. Hoge, Jr. 人權觀察組織主席，國際記者中心前主席，和外交事務退休編輯

“Her point of view is unique and original and worldly. Through the years she has hewn to nobody’s agenda but her own, which is a remarkable quality, especially in today’s superheated journalistic environment.”---Jack Fuller, Pulitizer-Prize winning journalist and former editor and publisher, The Chicago Tribune
“她的觀點是獨一無二的，獨創新穎的。這是通過多年來不但推敲自己和他人的工作日程筆記，這也是一個優秀的工作品質，尤其是在當今過熱炒作的新聞環境下。”—Jack Fuller, Pulitier-Prie獎記者和前《芝加哥論壇報》編輯和出版商

"Whoever the leader being scrutinized or the cause being examined, it is evident that Georgie Anne Geyer is driven by core principles of her craft. Her writings are without bombast or finger pointing; with a realization that the world of politics like that of ordinary events is something beyond profits and losses, what we still call behavior separating good from evil."---Irving Louis Horowitz, Hannah Arendt Professor of Sociology and Politics, Rutgers University
“無論誰是領導者，都被仔細調研或是被調查，顯然這是喬治•安妮•赫耶爾的行業水準由此被驅動的核心法則之一。她的作品沒有誇大其詞或是諉過於人的口吻：運用和大量的現實政治事件，類似於一些超出平常事件的受益和損失，我們可以從中區分善惡。”—Irving Louis Horowit, Hannah Arendt 美國羅格斯大學的社會系和政治系教授

”(S)he ranks heads and shoulders above most U.S. international commentators…She is knowledgeable, responsible, and daring. Her judgments are incisive and her moral and geopolitical compass steady.”---Zibigniew Brzezinski, Robert E. Osgood Professor of American Foreign Policy, John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Affairs, Washington, D.C.

“Georgie has put together a staggering body of work in her illustrious career, establishing herself as a steady and trusted voice during tumultuous times”---Andrews McMeel, Universal CEO

About the Author/作者介绍： Georgie Anne Geyer has been a Chicago reporter, a foreign correspondent covering virtually every part of the world, an author and biographer, and a syndicated columnist for half a century. She has appeared on Washington Week in Review, Meet the Press, and Firing Line. She has been the recipient of numerous awards, most recently the Daniel Pearl Award. In addition, she is the author of numerous books, including Buying the Night Flight, Guerrilla Prince, and Predicting the Unthinkable, Anticipating the Impossible (Transaction, 2011).
喬治•安妮•赫耶爾一直是芝加哥報記者，作為一個外國通訊記者，作者和傳記作者，以及專欄作家和半個世紀的外國記者，她走遍了世界各地。她曾在《Washington Week in Review/華盛頓一周評論》《Meet the Press/會見新聞界》《Firing Line/第一線》上發表作品。她一直的無數獎項獲得者，最近一次的Daniel Pearl/丹尼爾 珀爾獎。此外，她是眾多書籍的作者，包括《 Buying the Night Flight/獲得夜間飛行》，《Guerrilla Prince/遊擊王子》，和 這部（2011年，會報）《Predicting the Unthinkable, Anticipating the Impossible /預測未來不可能發生的事件》 的作者。

Format:HARDCOVER

Rights Status/版权销售情况：Simplified Chinese/简体中文：AVAILABLE

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