DANCE WITH CHANCE: MAKING LUCK WORK FOR YOU

Book ID/图书代码： 09915010B41313

English Summary/英文概要： Uneasy with how chance determines a huge part of our lives, we try to control what cannot be controlled and predict what cannot be predicted. It’s a self-delusion that can have serious consequences for our personal finances, careers, happiness, and health.

Dance With Chance explains how we all fall foul of this "Illusion of Control". Fortunately, when we understand how luck operates, we can lessen its ill effects. Minor lifestyle adjustments can have huge positive results. From simple investment strategies to warning against health screenings, the authors offer the revolutionary advice needed to make luck work for you.

You’ll find out why millions of deaths are caused each year by medical negligence and why a billionaire is no happier than an Eskimo. You’ll discover why no-one predicted the worst financial crisis since the great depression and what makes a sports star. Witty, inventive, and informed by the latest findings in psychology and statistics, Dance with Chance is an essential guide to navigating the uncertain world in which we live.

Chinese Summary/中文概要： 由于我们对于机遇决定我们大部分人生的方式感到心神不安，所以我们一直尝试去控制那些不能被掌控的事物和预测那些超乎预测范围之外的事情。事实上，机遇会给我们的个人理财，事业，快乐以及健康带来严重可怕的后果只不过是自欺欺人而已。《与机遇共舞》解释了我们是如何与“掌控的错觉”发生碰撞的。幸运的是当我们了解了运气的运作方式，我们就会减小它的负面作用。在生活方式上的微小调整可以带来巨大的积极意义。从简单的投资策略到体检的警告，几位作者为我们利用运气提供许多革命性的建议。

通过本书，你将了解到每年为什么有数以百万计的人因为医疗疏忽而丧生，以及为什么一个百万富翁还不如爱斯基摩人感到快乐。你还讲发现自从大萧条以来再也没有人能预测到那场最严重的金融危机和成为体育明星的要素。本书机智诙谐，别出心裁，同时加入了心理学的最新研究成果和相关数据，因此对帮助我们展望我们所生活的这个未知世界十分重要。(兼职翻译-XMM)

Awards/获奖情况：REVIEWS
"作者都是真正意义上的专家。不仅信息丰富而且读起来非常有趣。”

"Written by true experts. Informative yet so much fun to read!" -- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

"Easy-to-digest and highly competent. If everyone were to read this book, the world would become a more enlightened place." -- Gerd Gigerenzer, author of Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

"An excellent book." -- John Kay, Financial Times columnist and author of The Truth About Markets

"A delightful ballet of novel insights elegantly presented. Bravo! Encore!" -- Robert B. Cialdini, author of Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion

"Absolutely fascinating! A must read!" -- Robert J. Herbold, Executive Vice President and former Chief Operating Officer, Microsoft Corporation

From Publishers Weekly
Makridakis, Hogarth and Gaba—business professors and risk management experts—explore the powerful role of luck in our lives. For example, it’s commonly accepted that to live a long, healthy life, weight, blood pressure and cholesterol should be controlled and smoking is verboten. However, the authors cite an analysis of mortality rates that suggests that these factors have only a minimal effect on longevity—and in the case of body weight, our common knowledge might be entirely wrong. Early sections reconsider medical and investment advice in the light of the unacknowledged and unstudied role of pure chance, and the authors make surprising recommendations: avoid doctors, seek boring investments and ignore almost everything in business books. The second—and weaker—section of the book offers abstract strategies for living with greater uncertainty. Although lacking in specific practical advice, the book is worthwhile for its provocative thesis and its invitation to readers to relinquish the illusion of control. (May)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

About the Author/作者介绍： Spyros Makridakis是世界上第二大商学院—欧洲工商管理学院的名誉教授，而且他还是希腊一位前任奥林匹克选手。Robin M. Hogarth是西班牙巴塞罗那波谱法普拉大学的ICREA研究教授。他曾在芝加哥大学上学研究生院担任教授。Anil Gaba 是 ORPAR风险管理主持教授和欧洲工商管理学院的教长。

Spyros Makridakis is Professor Emeritus at INSEAD, France and Singapore, the World’s second largest business school, and a former Greek Olympian. Robin M. Hogarth is ICREA Research Professor at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain. He was formerly a professor at the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business. Anil Gaba is the ORPAR Chaired Professor of Risk Management and Dean of Faculty at INSEAD, France and Singapore.

Format:电子手稿

Rights Status/版权销售情况：Simplified Chinese/简体中文：AVAILABLE(到期可授)

Complex/Traditional Chinese/繁体中文：AVAILABLE

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