THE RISE OF CHINA VS. THE LOGIC OF STRATEGY (CHINA AND THE LOGIC OF STRATEGY)

Book ID/图书代码： 00790012B55200

English Summary/英文概要： As the rest of the world worries about what a future might look like under Chinese supremacy, Edward Luttwak worries about China’s own future prospects. Applying the logic of strategy for which he is well known, Luttwak argues that the most populous nation on Earth—and its second largest economy—may be headed for a fall.

For any country whose rising strength cannot go unnoticed, the universal logic of strategy allows only military or economic growth. But China is pursuing both goals simultaneously. Its military buildup and assertive foreign policy have already stirred up resistance among its neighbors, just three of whom—India, Japan, and Vietnam—together exceed China in population and wealth. Unless China’s leaders check their own ambitions, a host of countries, which are already forming tacit military coalitions, will start to impose economic restrictions as well.

Chinese leaders will find it difficult to choose between pursuing economic prosperity and increasing China’s military strength. Such a change would be hard to explain to public opinion. Moreover, Chinese leaders would have to end their reliance on ancient strategic texts such as Sun Tzu’s Art of War. While these guides might have helped in diplomatic and military conflicts within China itself, their tactics—such as deliberately provoking crises to force negotiations—turned China’s neighbors into foes. To avoid arousing the world’s enmity further, Luttwak advises, Chinese leaders would be wise to pursue a more sustainable course of economic growth combined with increasing military and diplomatic restraint.

Chinese Summary/中文概要：
現在世界到處都在宣揚中國威脅論，擔心在中國強權下，世界會變成什麼樣子，但Edward Luttwak更擔心中國的前景。利用Edward Luttwak熟知的戰略邏輯，他論述道，中國這個世界人口最多，經濟第二的國家可能會走向落寞。

根據戰略邏輯，任何一個有顯著發展的國家只能在軍事發展和經濟發展中二選一，但中國在同時追逐這兩項指標。中國的軍備建設和強硬外交已經引起了一些鄰國的不滿，比如印度、日本和越南。這三個國家的人口和財富加起來都可以超過中國。中國的領導人若是不放低一點發展指標，很多國家都會減少其與中國的經濟往來。其實，很多國家已經為此開始形成軍事聯盟了。

中國領導人很難在經濟發展和軍事發展中做出選擇，這種決策也很難向公眾解釋清楚。另外，Edward Luttwak認為中國不應再使用傳統《孫子兵法》中的辦法行事了。這些辦法在解決中國內部的紛爭和軍事衝突時可能有效，但這些類似於用離間之法贏取談判的辦法只會讓中國的鄰國更加憤恨。Edward Luttwak建議說，中國若是不想繼續樹敵，就應該抑制軍事發展，軟化外交策略，同時進行可持續的經濟發展。(Celia)

Awards/获奖情况：

About the Author/作者介绍：
Edward Luttwak是美國經濟學家和歷史學家。他是華盛頓戰略與國際研究中心的高級研究員，是多個政府部門的顧問，包括國防部秘書長辦公室、國家安全委員會、美國國務院、美國海軍、軍隊、空軍、聯盟政府、跨國企業和金融機構。他著書豐富，例如《Turbo Capitalism》和《The Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire》2004年，巴斯大學授予其榮譽學位。

Edward N. Luttwak is a Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Format:HARDCOVER

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