THE LOST SPRING: U. S. POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND CATASTROPHES TO AVOID
Book ID/图书代码： 08280014B68102
English Summary/英文概要： One of the greatest unanswered questions after the massive and violent changes that hit the Middle East in 2011, known to some as the "Arab Spring" and to others as the "Islamist Winter," is how the West failed to predict both cataclysmic seasons in world affairs and to meet their challenges. The so-called spring didn’t last long, quickly unraveling into a collection of civil wars, civil unrest, and secessions. Phares argues that Washington is too hesitant to take action when necessary, that US policy is highly disoriented on counter terrorism efforts, and that the effects of these errors have already proven costly. In Benghazi, US foreign policy failed to see the explosions coming, didn’t meet the challenges of political transformation where and with whom it should, and failed in isolating the Jihadi terrorists worldwide. Too many strategic errors were committed. In this fascinating new book, Phares, the only expert who accurately predicted the Arab Spring, will foretell a major demise in US and Western policies in the Middle East, unless a deep change in strategies and policies are made in Washington and around the world.
Chinese Summary/中文概要： 为何西方世界既没有能够成功的预测到这一多事之秋的世界局势的到来，也没有能够成功的完成这一挑战，这便是自2011年中东巨变后悬而未决的最大疑惑，有人称其为“阿拉伯之春”，有人却说这是“伊斯兰主义之冬”。这所谓的春天并未持续很久，而是迅速地演变成了一系列的内战、内乱和邦盟脱离。弗雷斯认为：美国当局太过犹豫，以至于无法在必要的时候采取行动，而美国的政策在反恐问题上极度无所适从，而这一系列错误所导致的影响如今看来已是耗费巨大。在班加西，美国所采取的政策并未收获预期的爆炸性效果，也没有在当地完成政治改革的挑战，并且全球伊斯兰圣战恐怖分子也并未因此而被隔离开来。美国政府如今已犯下了如此多的政策失误。弗雷斯，唯一一名准确预测了阿拉伯之春的专家，将在这部精彩的全新书籍中再次预测，除非美国当局及世界各国能够在政治政策上作出深刻的转变，否则美国及西方在中东政治问题上将无疑惨遭失败。（DC）
Awards/获奖情况：“2005年，在《未来圣战》一书中，瓦列德•弗莱斯预测基地组织将从其位于巴基斯坦的基地开始扩张，以在整个中东及北非地区建立强有力的权力组织。在《即将到来的2010革命》一书中，弗雷斯预测了阿拉伯之春---该预言早于实际发生2年。许多评论家及专家对弗雷斯的预测嗤之以鼻，事实却最终令他们不得不沉默不语。在弗雷斯的这本全新作品《遗失的春天》中，他描述了改革者与正统主义者之间的斗争是如何激化至武力解决，而谁又将取得胜利？答案无人知晓。但弗雷斯告诉了我们时间，并且再一次的，他拥有着自己最佳的占卜水晶球。” —K. T. 马克法兰德，福克斯新闻台国家安全局分析师，里根总统公共国防副部长，曾为亨利•基辛格的NSC成员
“In 2005, in Future Jihad, Walid Phares predicted that Al Qaeda would expand from its base in Pakistan to create powerful franchises throughout the Middle East and North Africa. In The Coming Revolution of 2010, Phares predicted the Arab Spring—a full two years before it happened. Many commentators and experts dismissed Phares’ predictions, only to later eat their words. With his new book, The Lost Spring, Phares describes how the Middle East is racing towards a fight to the finish between reformers and fundamentalists. Who will prevail? No one knows. But Phares has shown time and again that he’s got the best crystal ball in the business.” —K. T. McFarland, FOX News National Security Analyst, President Reagan’s Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs, and former member of Henry Kissinger’s NSC Staff
About the Author/作者介绍： 瓦列德•弗雷斯博士是一名世界闻名的恐怖主义及中东专家，现为国会及欧盟参谋。他还是跨大西洋反恐议会团的总秘书之一，常常客座美国及阿拉伯媒体采访。自2003年以来，弗雷斯曾担任微软全国广播公司节目的恐怖主义分析师，并自2007年担任福克斯新闻中东专家。他的专栏曾出现在各大出版物上，其中包括《华盛顿时报》《华尔街日报》及《费加罗报》。目前，作者正就2011年开始的暴动思索下阶段可能产生的动荡问题。
Dr. Walid Phares is a world-renowned terrorism and Middle East expert and serves as an advisor to Congress and to members of the European Parliament. He is the Co-Secretary General of the Transatlantic Parliamentary Group on Counter Terrorism and is a frequent guest on US and Arab media. Phares was an MSNBC Terrorism analyst since 2003 and has been a Fox News Middle East expert since 2007. His columns have appeared in many publications including The Washington Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Le Figaro. He has been projecting the next stages of the upheavals seen since the start of the revolts in 2011.
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